Executive job demand in Australia continues to crater
Elections Tariffs and Trump worry employers
Broad-based falls, across most executive sectors and most states and territories
No talk of helping productivity, just more government handouts and telling Aussies what they want to hear
Executive Job Demand in Australia Continues to Crater
The executive job market has continued to crater as the economy is taken over by politics, both domestically and internationally, according to the E.L. Executive Demand Index.
The E.L Index fell 8 per cent in March and has now continually and seemingly inexorably continuing its fall since COVID.
Uncertainty Stalls Executive Hiring Across Australia
Mr Grant Montgomery, from E.L Consult, a leading executive search firm that has researched and published the E.L. Executive Demand Index for over 30 years, said: “Nobody in Australian business is making forward decisions like the employment of executives until there is some clarity on the local and international economies.
“While all elections cause a drop off in hiring intentions, this year was particularly bad with a faltering economy, a lacklustre election campaign, and so many big issues at stake like productivity,” Mr Montgomery said.
Economic Growth Threatened by Deficit Spending and Political Gridlock
“While the left has come in with a powerful win, there is little comfort for employers. The future is a long line of increased deficits from heavy government spending and a partisan approach to employment and productivity.
“The deficit forecasts are based on growth that includes resource prices, particularly iron ore, remaining where they are. If there’s a significant reduction in economic growth globally, then resource prices can expect to fall, and those falls in royalty and tax revenues will also fall, making the spending promises now even more egregious and risky.
“The government is unwilling to take on anything negative and point out to Australians that the economy is threatened by some significant headwinds.
Household Spending and Rising House Prices Mask Productivity Decline
“Many Aussies like to think that they are in a good place, but much of that ‘feel good’ is due to a ‘wealth effect’ brought on by rising house prices making them feel richer than they did yesterday. But houses aren’t productive assets, and that wealth cannot easily be cashed.
“Australia’s GDP growth has been driven by household and government spending – household spending prompted by the wealth effect, and government spending turbo-charged by hiring more and more public servants.
Ongoing GDP Per Capita Decline Ignored in Election Rhetoric
“What was never spoken about during the campaign was seven consecutive quarterly drops in GDP per capita and a very subdued business investment environment – and the spending that was there was buttressed by farm spending, which is hardly a 21st-century industry.
“Most of all, labour productivity continues to decline while the government spruiks that real wages are continuing to grow. This is a dichotomy that must be resolved before we, as a country, walk blindfolded into a bigger crisis.
Global Trade Disruption and Tariffs Add to Uncertainty
“Of course, Trump and his war on tariffs is not helping one bit as he creates his huge disruption to supply chains around the world.
“Most companies whether they deal directly with America or not depend on international trade which is now completely disrupted and up in the air.
“Even if Australia ends up with little or no tariffs on US trade this uncertainty will continue until all countries have deals and the market has settled down – not the least China, Australia’s largest trading partner.
“We suspect that this is going to take at least four to six months as a minimum,” Mr Montgomery said.
Widespread Executive Job Declines Across States and Sectors
Most states and territories fell, again led by Victoria among the large states and Tasmania among the smaller regions. Only the ACT moved forward thanks to improvements in the business sector of Information Technology and Marketing employment.
Among the sectors, the Marketing sector was the only one not to record a negative result, with an overall movement of zero. The Financial sector was the weakest, with government and private sector advertising falling.
Engineering dropped sharply and is now seeing its negative trend accelerate.
Call Grant Montgomery on +612 9221 6688 or 0414926688 for further details
April 2025 Statistics
April 2025 National Index
April 2025 National Index: 457
Same period last year (April 2024): 505
Percentage change over last month: -8%
National Summary
The executive job market has continued to crater as the economy is taken over by politics, both domestically and internationally, falling 8 per cent in March. The Index has now continually and seemingly inexorably continued to fall since COVID. The combination of the Australian election uncertainty and International trade restrictions have combined to undermine confidence.
National Demand for Executives Over Last Seven Years
The executive demand long-term trend is now at its lowest point since October 2021 at the height of the COVID period, being affected by considerable month to month falls.
State by State Comparison
Most states and territories fell, again led by Victoria among the large states and Tasmania among the smaller regions. Only the ACT moved forward thanks to improvements in the business sector, Information Technology and Marketing employment.
Employment Trends for Executive Groups
Among the sectors, the Marketing sector was the only one not to record a negative result, with an overall movement of zero, an improvement on its performance in the prior period. The Financial sector was the weakest, with both government and private hiring falling. Engineering dropped sharply and is now seeing its negative trend accelerate.
April 2025 E.L Finance Index
April 2025 E.L Finance Index: 709
Same period last year (April 2024): 744
Percentage change over last month: -15%
The Financial index fell sharply by 15 per cent in March, the steepest monthly decline in over a year and the largest fall out of all the sectors in this period.
As can be expected in such a large overall drop, the losses were felt in both the government and business sectors, suggesting a renewed downturn in demand for senior finance professionals.
The contraction was broad-based, with Victoria, New South Wales and Western Australia providing the largest numbers of employment reduction.
The loss in March sees the Financial Index fall under its recent trading range.
April 2025 E.L Engineering Index
April 2025 E.L Engineering Index: 204
Same period last year (April 2025): 258
Percentage change over last month: -12%
Engineering slumped by 12 per cent in March—its most significant two-month loss since Covid.
This sector has been trending downward now for over two years, raising concerns given its role in infrastructure and capital works planning.
New South Wales and the ACT were especially weak, while smaller states such as South Australia offered little offset.
April 2025 E.L Management Index
April 2025 E.L Management Index: 622
Same period last year (April 2024): 735
Percentage change over last month: -6%
The Management sector recorded a 6 per cent decline in March, continuing a subdued first quarter.
Executive hiring in this category remains under pressure, especially in the government sector in the ACT, as the government moved into caretaker mode.
Losses in other states, including Victoria and Western Australia, were part of the downward move, with only some marginal improvement from the Northern Territory assisting the overall index.
April 2025 E.L Information Technology Index
April 2025 E.L Information Technology Index: 134
Same period last year (April 2024): 201
Percentage change over last month: -3%
Information Technology dipped 3 per cent in March, a relatively modest fall in a sector that has experienced significant long-term declines since 2023.
Despite persistent boom AI narratives, hiring activity remains weak, particularly in the larger states.
Perhaps the technology is becoming so UX-friendly that non-IT professionals can run what would previously been their exclusive domain.
New South Wales and Queensland were soft, but Victoria and Western Australia posted gains.
April 2025 E.L Marketing Index
April 2025 E.L Marketing Index: 545
Same period last year (April 2024): 491
Percentage change over last month: 0%
Marketing was flat (0 per cent) in March, outperforming other sectors by simply holding ground.
This continues the sector’s recent resilience, remaining near the midpoint of its two-year range.
Performance was mixed across the country—NSW and Queensland edged up, while Victoria was lower due to a fall in business sector demand.
About the E.L Index
The E.L Index is a comprehensive monthly analysis of employment trends at executive level. An Australian analysis is produced in Sydney and an Asian analysis in Hong Kong and Singapore.
The E.L Index has shown by two separate University studies to correlate strongly with general economic and business trends. It is featured by most of the major news services and is closely followed by government and central bank analysts.
The E.L Index is actually a combined national index of all executive demand made up of five separate indices; E.L Finance Index, E.L IT Index, E.L Management Index, E.L Marketing Index and the E.L Engineering Index.
The National and specific career group Indexes are shown as relative indexes recording the monthly demand activity for executive positions in the current month against the demand in a historical base period which is normalised to 100. The historical base period used was the average of the last quarter of 1992 which research showed to be the bottom of that downturn.
By averaging to a historical base period the comparison of, say, June 1994 to June 2000 is meaningful, giving a clean, easily understood appreciation of changing investment and economic trends without seasonal obscurity.
The E.L Index utilises data from both print and internet sources and is the only employment index to do so.
The print data is collected from the major employment paper in each state. National papers are not used to avoid “doubling up”. Internet data is not collected off the web sites which can be subject to some error but instead collected through raw data provided by the ISP themselves. Print data has over 15 years of historical data and the internet more than 6 years.
Why Executive Demand is a Primary Lead Indicator?
It is often claimed that unemployment figures and broad-based job vacancy surveys do not give a fair impression of what is occurring in executive ranks. The E.L Index addresses this and has some interesting correlative and predictive qualities. Such as:
- Employment of management usually precedes the employment of skilled and unskilled workers.
- Employment of engineering executives precedes major capital investment.
- The division between various management sectors gives an indication of which sectors of the economy are experiencing growth or decline.
- Compares month by month changes in the public and private sector as well as monitoring government expenditure patterns.
- Makes regional comparisons after allowing for population differences.
- It shows a ‘rate of change’ and can therefore be realistically compared to general economic and employment growth unlike some surveys that report absolute numbers.
- Core data is collected on an actual expenditure of business and government, not on a respondent’s opinion or confidence level.
